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希勒:阿森纳将会打破英超单赛季最少失球纪录(希勒称阿森纳将改写英超单季最少失球纪录)
栏目:开云 发布时间:2026-01-17

Analyzing Premier League defenses

I’m considering the Premier League records for fewest goals conceded. Chelsea holds the record with 15 goals in the 2004-05 season. Next are teams like Liverpool and Manchester United, but those stats could vary after my last knowledge cutoff. The user mentioned Shearer’s prediction, so I can analyze that without needing to browse the web. It would also be good to mention Arsenal's performance under Arteta last season, where they conceded 29 goals. I’ll double-check that.Discussing Arsenal's defense

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I’m considering Arsenal's goals allowed for the 2023-24 season, which I think is 29. They conceded 43 in the 2022-23 season and had quite a few clean sheets in spring 2024. Breaking Chelsea's record of 15 goals conceded is tough. If Arsenal had 9 by December, it might be feasible, but since it’s now December 2025, I can't assume their current status. The user might want to discuss tactics or context, so I can offer both options.Summarizing Premier League records

I’m outlining some key facts: Chelsea holds the Premier League record for fewest goals conceded at 15 during the 2004-05 season. To break that, Arsenal would need to concede 14 or fewer, which means a rate of 0.37 per game or less. Recently, top defenses like Liverpool in 2018-19 conceded 22, and Manchester City conceded 23. I think Arsenal's best in recent seasons was around 26 to 29. I'll ask the user if they want current season numbers to check if Arsenal is on pace.Discussing Arsenal's defensive challenges

I’m outlining why it’s plausible for Arsenal to achieve a low goals against tally, considering their structure, pressing metrics, and the synergy between Saliba and Gabriel, along with low set-piece goals conceded. However, it’s hard to maintain that due to factors like variance, penalties, schedule congestion, injuries, refereeing decisions, and game state when leading. If they want to concede just 14 goals in a 38-game season, they’d need about 24 clean sheets, close to the record of 25 by Cech in 2004-05. Should I compare this with their current goals against and run projections based on expected goals against?Opening with Shearer’s perspective

I’m planning to respond briefly to the user's reference to Shearer and fact-check the record for the fewest goals conceded in the Premier League, which is 15 by Chelsea in the 2004-05 season.

To break this record, we need to discuss the required pace and the number of clean sheets necessary. I’ll highlight the strengths of Arsenal’s defense under Arteta, like the high line with Saliba and Gabriel, and the strong pressing and set-piece tactics. I should also mention obstacles while offering to provide up-to-date numbers if they want to know the current goals conceded or check the pace.

看点在这儿:

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  • 英超单季最少失球纪录是切尔西2004-05赛季的15球;要打破纪录,阿森纳必须把失球控制在14球或更少,38轮场均≤0.37球,通常意味着接近或达到英超历史级别的25场零封。
  • 这很难但非不可能。阿森纳在阿尔特塔体系下的防守轮廓强:高位压迫+稳定回追(萨利巴/加布里埃尔)、边后卫内收与对侧保护(怀特/富安/廷伯轮换)、赖斯的肋部覆盖、定位球由Jover打磨多年,压制对手高质量射门的能力稳定在联盟顶级区间。
  • 主要不确定性:伤病(任一中后卫/6号位缺阵都会放大风险)、密集赛程的体能波动、点球和折射等随机性、客战强队的比赛态势,以及领先后收缩带来的“低xG但高转化”的偶发丢球。
  • 经验参照:近十年冠军的失球多在低20到中20,想冲击15需要整个赛季都维持极低的场均xGA与犯错率,并且门将要拿到接近金手套纪录的零封数。

需要的话,我可以基于本赛季阿森纳当前的失球数,给你算“打破纪录所需的剩余场均失球上限”和一个简易概率判断。告诉我他们现在联赛失球多少、踢了几轮,或者要我查实时数据也行。

低xG但高